src: MM⌗

During a bear market, you often get a “shakeout” in some form on the right side of a base during the bottoming process. The “reason” is usually attributed to some scary news item that fuels negative sentiment and leans on investors that have already been beaten up and worn out emotionally as well as financially. This leads to the final selling and marks the shift from weak hands to strong hands, creating the conditions necessary for a new uptrend. Debt ceiling issues, inflation worries, recession speculation and Fed language are all plausible scapegoats.

But as we look back at history and as I reflect on the nine bear markets I have lived through personally, it was always during these “scary” times that bottoms were formed and a great opportunity was about to be born.

The question is, going forward… what part of the historic narrative are you going to choose to be part of? Will you be a victim of your own idiosyncrasies and blame the market and the system/ Will you throw in the towel at the wrong time and flush all your hard work down the toilet due to impatience? Or will you be among the rare participants that remain disciplined, sticks to the rules, and as a result, defy the odds?

The way I cut through the noise and navigate these tumultuous times ensuring that I do not fall victim to my own emotions, is not by having a crystal ball or even through my experience and skill. It’s by focusing on the individual stocks and sticking to sound buying and selling principles. It’s through having and trusting rules.

In 40-years, my rules-based bottoms up or stocks have the final say approach has not let me down. My opinion and my emotions take a back seat to verdict of the market. I expose my capital to the best and plan for the worst. I only get aggressive when my trades are working, and I always cut back and trade small when they are not. In doing so, I create asymmetric leverage and beat the market time and time again. Meanwhile, the undisciplined, the skeptics and the quitters spectate in disbelief and wonder… how did he do it? He must have gotten lucky!

My response. After four decades, trading through nine bull markets and nine bear markets (including four of the worst bear markets and crashes in stock market history) and hundreds of thousands of stock trades, I would guess that I would have to be the luckiest guy in the world.

Or maybe (just a thought) discipline, strategy, hard work and commitment actually pays off, and the market is not completely random? Maybe this craft of stock trading is not just a hobby or a sport (at least for some of us). Maybe trading and investing is actually a business. And like any other business, there are principles that allow for a successful enterprise.

I can assure you it’s the later, and I can also assure you that you have the potential to match and even exceed my own success. The future will be filled with opportunity. But I can also assure that you will have to dig deep and muster up the courage to think and act like a champion. Because greatness is not handed out like candy on Halloween. To the contrary, it’s reserved for those that deserve it, and your worthiness will be tested over and over again.

Knowledge and opportunity does not automatically lead to success; it’s what you do with the knowledge and how you handle opportunity when it comes knocking.

Step one: Stop worrying. Stop complaining. Stop making excuses. Stop believing the clowns that never experienced huge success. Follow and emulate proven individuals and proven methods. Put your head down and do the work. Be patient. Remain disciplined and your future will be bright enough to light the way for those who choose to travel in your footsteps.

There are two disciplines you need to develop to become a great stock trader.⌗

1. the ability and willingness to stay put in cash when few stocks meet your criteria, even when the indexes are rallying and everyone else is making money.
2. the willingness to trust and trade the individual stock setups, even when the news is bleak, you’re scared to death and everyone else is screaming the end of the world is coming.

literally, wait and wait until the crisp setup come to me.⌗

ada setup yang tanggung, jangan diambil.

3 Hal untuk April 2023:⌗

1. learn and trust my stock
2. move on from mistakes FAST
3. things I can control itu banyak, bukan cmn losses, tapi jg mindset, apa yang di buy, sizing, preparation.

Dari Brandt:⌗

One of the most valuable lessons taught to me by the small group of traders who took me under their wings in the 1970s at the Chicago Board of Trade was this:

Define your trading goals not by performance outcomes but by the things you can control. I have no control over how much money I will make today, this week, this month, this year.

Dan Markey, a Cargill trader who more than any other shared all of his wisdom and knowledge with me, would always say, “Peter, know exactly what aspects of trading you can control and concentrated on those things.”

• Having a certain trade “work” is not something I can control.

• Having a 60% win-rate is not something I control

• Achieving a 100% ROR is not something I control

• Having the profits to purchase a BMW was not something I could control"

Rather, my only control is over the “process” by which I trade – the markets I decide to trade, mental preparation, setting and following rules, sizing, managing my order flow, time frame for analysis and trading, performing analytics, etc.

Bottom line: you need to learn and trust the stocks.

JUST BUY THE BREAKOUT AND SELL THE LOSSES