As a hiring organization, be cautious of any interviewer that has an ego or attitude. The odds of you getting any good data from them is low. The name of the game is reducing bias, and that type has a lot of it.
Founders love reading startup porn. Founders can spend hours reading stories about how other founders became successful, and/or how they devised a perfect method to reach the top. But at the end of the day, it only adds marginal value.
No one became rich by pasting post-its on a canvas model. People become rich by building products people love, and selling them. So just ignore the startup porn and go straight into building the thing.
Trading at a high level requires more than just mastering charts and fundamental analysis. It requires more than mastering position sizing and risk management. It requires mastering yourself.
Minervini Your life is the result of what you think, feel and how you act upon those thoughts and emotions… not the other way around. Get control over your mindset, and you get control over your destiny.
In 2020 – in the midst of a worldwide pandemic – I was about as nervous and unsure as I’ve ever been about buying stocks.
Everyone wants to know where the “market” is going. If you’re a stock trader, it’s the wrong question. The right question to ask is: are there setups that meet your buy criteria and are your buys holding above your stops. Is the upside exceeding risk?
This is how I determine when to get aggressive in the market, NOT when the market makes a low.
saat terbaik beli GOTO 10 tahun lalu, etc.
What if indexes were never invented? How in the world would you ever trade? Think about it and you will get an empowering answer worth millions.
If you would stop worrying about where the “market” is going – has it bottomed? is it going to top? – and using labels like bullish and bearish to dictate your trading, you may have a chance at actually finding the best names and trading them successfully.
The quality of your thinking will determine the quality of your life AND your trading.
Excerpt from Mindset Secret for Winning Book:
AVOID BEING AN “AVOIDER” When I first started competing in shooting competitions, I was having problems with too many “mics” (misses off target). I realized with only 5 percent less mics, I would have won many of the competitions instead of coming in second, third, or fourth. By troubleshooting (pardon the pun), I found that those mics were causing me to lose; if I had erased them, I would have won.
Play the game like 12 innings. I have 12-months to achieve my goals. Plenty of time. Work correctly.
Perfect not in trading but perfect in following my plans and perfect in discipline.
Be prepared. So I properly in sync with the market. No index. No cryptos. Stock only.
Speculate was adopted into English in the late 16th century from Latin speculatus, the past participle of the verb speculari, which means “to spy out” or “to examine.” Speculari, in turn, derives from specula, meaning “lookout post,” and ultimately from the Latin verb specere, meaning “to look (at).”
To Speculate = To Observe
Always trade with a stop loss Define your stop before you enter trade Never risk more than you expect to gain Nail down decent profits when you have them Never let good size gain turn into a loss Only get aggressive on the heels of profits Scale back exposure when trading poorly Never add to a losing position What most people truly know about trading can fit into a thimble with room left over.
“Successful trading is always an emotional battle for the speculator, not an intelligent battle.”
Without faith in his own judgement no man can go very far in this game.
Start with question: What is my edge?
Two critical mindset to work with:
Recency bias Be greedy when ** are fearful. How can I improve it?
If you’re a discretionary trader, there will be trade signals you fail to act upon. But this is not the real problem. The real problem comes from trades you take that are not genuine signals (but emotional ones). If you don’t understand the difference then you should not be trading.
As a discretionary trader it is often the case when I am not in a trade I should be in.
The velocity move. A big move in short period of time.
Ritchie: Assuming it is working. (Giving the benefit of doubt).
Ritchie realize he selling out too soon and these stocks were going much higher.
One of the thing you could do is to back stop it. To give it some room. Sell part of it to finance the risk. No difference than other play. The only difference is I give power play the benefit of doubt.
You will do best if you let stock setups guide you and ignore all the noise from of opinions, economics and the “stories.” For most investors this is difficult. They love to think they know the reasons behind a price move. It’s all BS. The average investor never outsmarts price.
As I Tweeted earlier, I think the indexes like the S&P 500 are running up a bit fast and I would be cautious buying into continued strength without a pullback first.
The Pseudoscience of supply and demand.
Pseudoscience consists of statements, beliefs, or practices that claim to be both scientific and factual but are incompatible with the scientific method.
The market moves on supply and demand. Behind it, it is the people who moves the market and people are bound to fear and greed. Ultimately, it moves based on fear and greed.
Me, myself is still in losers camp. I need to rewire my brain.
Let me give you a key tips. When to sell on strength, and when to sell on weakness.
When you sell on strength, you sell on your equity peak.
It doesn’t matter what the stock did after you sold it, because you keep at your equity peak.
Trading isn’t about taking the highs or lows, it is about making more on the rewards than the risks and doing it over and over again!
Look at its 21 dma.
This is a stock I wanted to buy more of today but it gapped and I don’t usually chase gaps. BIG volume and great RS since the market lows and bullish fundamentals. If this can put in a handle I’ll get VERY aggressive. Keep an eye on this group for low risk entries.
I can’t see it, unless I squeeze it like Brandt.
It would depend upon the setup and how wide/tight the pivot is.
I’ll show where the low/FTD happened but more importantly where the really good opportunity to get aggressive on the long side appeared.
Lets start with the now infamous 2020 example. Markets bottomed on 3/26, we don’t get a valid accum day until 4/6 which is where I bought a few stocks but didn’t start getting aggressive until the first highlighted area. The 2nd highlighted area I got REALLY aggressive/long
Maintaining a 2:1 reward to risk ratio at a 40% win rate, your optimal % gain vs. % loss is 20/10. Any LESS, you make less. Any MORE, you make less. You can learn more and read about optimizing your trading in my book.
The reality of my trading lives in 30% batting average. I cannot make money with 2:1 ratio. I need at least 2.7 ratio (or 3 frankly) to print money.
With regard to futures contracts as well as other financial instruments, slippage is the difference between where the computer signaled the entry and exit for a trade and where actual clients, with actual money, entered and exited the market using the computer’s signals.
It is absurd to think when I wrote down price point cross 735, then I must get it at 735 too. Pay the slippage. Pay the price up!
Bias of the day, creating reluctant to execute properly.
The method works! but the poor execution makes havoc.
The danger line works! The pivot works as expected!
when I get it right, I can be really right. But when I got it wrong, I am fucking wrong. I’m never just a little bit wrong. Either the price level hold or runs.
Stop creating map in my brain, treat each setup independently.
The way you get better as discretionary trader. The goal is not actually to be winning trades because you’re going to get better at what you’re focusing on. I think the winner tend to happen all by themselves. So, if you make your aim to always be avoiding the bad ones and that is your goal ultimately when you’re trading, you’re going to end up refining the framework. You’re going to get better at avoiding the bad traits.
The game taught me the game. And it didn’t spare the rod while teaching
Jesse Livermore
Of all things you read, watch, the best teacher is studying your own mistake
David Ryan
You’re sitting at acres of diamonds.
Mark Minervini
The market is teaching you everyday. The market gives you feedback about what you’re doing.
Larry Williams
Welcome back, recency.
Kalau AALI break dulu, AALI masi ada 1/2 dan CPRO tetap sell on weakness.
Tetapi karena CPRO break dulu, dan next leg-nya ga kuat, jadinya kepikiran AALI jg ga kuat. Padahal dengan reverse scenario, metode harusnya tidak berubah dan menghasilkan path yang sama.
Monday Morning Quarterback tanpa button up rule ini menjauhkan trading operation dari keseimbangan.
So, What is the put down the method?
I realized that to get big return I didn’t necessarily need to find giant winner in the stock market (although that remains my ultimate goal), but while I’m looking for those stocks that make huge move, I can still pursue a very strong performance with smaller, solid gains that compound my money. This “Plan B” allow me to turn 15-20 percent winner into triple digit annual return.
why trader stay poor?
Though not an expensive mistake, but it is still a mistake, isn’t it?
Only bought 20% position. Missing the break on 1st day, then bought on pullback the next day. loss 2 games equivalent cost. (is this a correct mindset?) A mistake that keeps being repeated is not a mistake, it’s a choice.
After all, not sure this is a mistake. Be careful with my old darkness, being right. Subsequently leading to recency thinking.
If you are having trouble with your trading there can only a few things wrong: 1. Faulty criteria 2. Faulty discipline 3. Market environment Check the first two. If you are doing everything correctly, then the general market sucks and it’s time to sit out.
From podcast:
takes 24 months for him to be a profitable trader with directly under coaching of another trader. side by side. Intellectually, he knew the method but unable to execute Finally learnt to find the easiest method to execute.
The pattern repeats itself.
Learn from mistakes vs Training like a champion
Some people want to learn from those that failed.. to learn what not to do. Imagine if Olympic athletes trained that way! Lol! There are a million ways to fail. Study them carefully and you will become an expert at failing. Study how winners win and you have a shot a being great.
All through time, people have basically acted and reacted the same way in the market as a result of greed, fear, ignorance, and hope.
btw, focus on the stocks! Whatever set ups!
The 2011 correction is another precedent to look to for guidance as to what we might potentially expect going forward. I think in both cases – 2011 and 1998 – the key point illustrated is that carving out a reliable bottom was a process.
Today there’s selling in areas that have been leading and buying in the areas that have gotten smashed.
They are disciplinarians. Like a monk who sticks to his prayer, each remains true to his investing gospel and ignores outside influences.
Keeping the faith has paid off big for the two investment pros. While their investing systems couldn’t differ more, they agree on two points.
Sticking to a set of proven rules leads to consistent rewards in the stock market. Breaking rules means losses. Investors can choose among a variety of sound investing methods.
When you make a real commitment, you know that a successful outcome will only materialize as a result of executing the proper steps. You commit to a process—and you embrace the journey. To become a great trader you MUST get your attention off the money and on process.
I executed ITMG poorly, though luck bailed me out.
I bought PTBA half position, then it didn’t directly work out. Do not pre-empt ITMG @21600, and thinking will wait if crossing 21800 as the white paper.
The Market is the engine, I’m the caboose.
How could it be possible I lose my mind over generating the alpha.
Do I really think I know where the stuff is going? Then why do I poor? Where was the result if I knew?
Why it is so difficult to execute?
Traders need to measure the performance of their methodology and the performance of their execution. You can have a perfectly good trading methodology but just fuck up execution every single day of the week until you’re broke.
The way to generate alpha is through independent thinking. Meaning no correlation whatsoever. If I think all I am doing is beta, then my performance will never be that great.
DO NOT CORRELATE one event to another.
This cost money and time.
First mistake was thinking I got a good bet. No. It was NOT a good outcome. It was already on hard pity.
Second mistake was the most fatal. It was so broke that I continued to think the outcome/luck would continue to the next banner.
Champions don’t leave greatness to chance. They decide that they are going to be winners, and they live each day with that goal in focus. I dabbled for almost a decade. Then in 1990, I made a firm commitment to become a champion stock trader. The rest is history.
from AGII to CENT from 005930.KS to BBCA from DRMA to ADMR from index to TRIN, KLBF This is what i refer to a NOISE and I ignore the noise even my own opinions bc they mean nothing!
In the stock market you have the opportunity to create money, literally out of thin air. But to do it consistently at a high level, you must banish the idea of luck or conspiracy and take full responsibility, knowing for sure that you alone are the sole creator of your results.
Mediocre performers believe their errors and mishaps were caused by factors outside their control “My opponent got lucky”; “I was unlucky”; “Life is unfair!
What is your plan?
Mayday, Mayday!
I’m behind the curve!
Looking at TMAS, I mismanaged BRMS and ALDO.
Looking at AVIA, I mismanaged WGSH.
Looking at ASSA, I missed all the way UP!
Why?
Part of the answer must be the market participants have been misguided by a different theoretical construction. One derived from classical economics and even more important from natural science. Nevertheless investor do recognize the sequence I have described and do respond it, only they respond later than someone who is working with the appropriate model and is on the look out for the crucial feature that define the shape of the price curve.
Comfort Kills Performance.
Comfort in trading, kills my performance.
What kind of comfort I tend to?
ASII and BMRI, both are big caps, so the next big cap like PGAS will have the same squat behavior. WRONG! ARNA full R, squat. ASII full R. squat. Then the next winner like ALDO only got allocated half the risk, then only half the reward. WRONG! The reward from ALDO cannot pay for the risk.
This year ends in 6 weeks. When IBD publishes the list of % gaining winners, how many will U have held for most of the move. The biggest regret is buying right in size and selling early. Sitting makes U rich. The rest is all talk, I had it but sold early.
— James Roppel (@Upticken) November 19, 2021 But then I need to flip it over and over. 100x is better than 10x flip.
For the moment all discipline seems painful rather than pleasant, but later it yields the peaceful fruit of righteousness to those who have been trained by it.
I mismanaged this baby while attached to recency bias from KLBF.
Recency bias is a cognitive bias that favors recent events over historic ones. A memory bias, recency bias gives “greater importance to the most recent event”.
Be careful with your thought. The fools and his money will soon part.
Traders have the wrong idea of what trading is actually about. Speculation is about selling higher than you buy and doing it as many times as you can.
Two missions:
Trade a lot. Progressive exposure. You always have to keep your eye on the ball. Traders get caught up in highs and lows and Monday morning quarterbacking. If you lose focus on what the goal is – to make a decent profit and do it again – then you’ll get yourself very frustrated and confused.
Those who know do not speak. Those who speak do not know.
This was one good trade. From unexpected point of view, I never knew it would became a nice break.
Those who think using stop losses is a bad idea don't understand the concept, and more importantly the techniques for capturing asymmetrical volatility. Once you do... you become empowered, and then consistency and superperformance become possible.
— Mark Minervini (@markminervini) November 6, 2021 Type of a person.
No-one is a “natural” speculator at birth.
Ada hal aneh yang menghantuiku. Ntah kenapa, setelah diperhatikan, my head secara sistematis membunyikan suara atas saham-saham yang berada pada critical mass dengan suara-suara avoidance.
Jika ada 4 saham yang memenuhi kriteria, maka suara alam bawah sadar akan teriak untuk menghindari 2 saham yang sedang pada titik kritis dan cenderung memilih 2 saham lainnya yang sedang adem-ayem. Hal ini terlihat seperti memilih untuk comfort zone.